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SPE: Globally Installed PV Capacity May Reach 1.3TW in 2023,With China Taking the Lead

Source: PV Magazine
Translated by PV Guangzhou Committee
In a recent report published by SolarPower Europe (also SPE), the global PV market is forecast to see a 25% increase in new deployments. Under the Medium Scenario presented in the report, global PV market will witness an installation capacity of 128 GW in 2019, up by 25 percent from 2018 (102.4 GW). China is still expected to be the largest market with around 43 GW and the US and India are expected to install more than 10 GW this year, which would be 11.8 GW and 12.9 GW, respectively.
SPE also offered two more potential outcomes: Under a low scenario, the global PV market will see only 85 GW of growth due to possible cuts to solar support in several countries; According to a high scenario, the globally installed capacity will soar to 165.4 GW.  
“2018 was a unique year for the entire global solar industry, as we exceeded the magic installation mark of 100 GW per year for the first time, which led the solar power sector to grow to over 500 GW or 0.5 TW,” said the association’s president, Christian Westermeier.
Flourishing prospects up to 2023
SPE’s Medium Scenario also envisages that global solar demand could grow by 12% year on year to 144 GW in 2020. In the following three years, new additions could reach 158 GW (+10%), 169 GW (+7%), and 180 GW (+6%), respectively. If those numbers are achieved, the world’s cumulative installed PV capacity would increase from around 600 GW at the end of this year to 900 GW in 2021, 1.1 TW in 2022 and about 1.3 TW by the end of 2023.
China’s installed solar power is expected to increase by another 273 GW to 448 GW by 2023. India, which may become the world’s third-largest market by the end of the 2019-2023 period, could reach 116 GW, with new additions hitting 88.7 GW. The U.S. market is forecast to add 70 GW over the next five years to bring its cumulative solar capacity to 116 GW, which would make it as the world’s second-largest PV market. Japan will remain one of the world’s largest markets by 2023, with an expected cumulative capacity of 82.3 GW, but new deployments for the 2019-2023 period will only reach roughly 26.5 GW.
Major Players to Drive Europe’s Growth
Germany will remain the largest PV market in Europe for years to come, with an expected newly installed solar capacity of 26.7 GW by 2023, bringing its total capacity to 72.6 GW. Spain will be the second-biggest market with new additions reaching 19.4 GW and its cumulative total hitting 25.3 GW by the end of the 2019-2023 period. Over the next five years, the Netherlands, France and Italy will likely add 15.8 GW, 13.3 GW and 9.6 GW, respectively. They will be followed by Ukraine and Turkey, with 5.9 GW and 5.5 GW of respective projected growth.
Stronger Push Needed for Renewables
Despite the positive outlook, SPE believes that the deployment of solar must be accelerated to meet targets set in the Paris agreement.
“Solar is ready in terms of both technology and affordability for a much greater uptake of our clean energy source to help mitigate the climate crisis,” says Michael Schmela, executive adviser of SolarPower Europe. However, the association also notes that the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is recommending an average deployment of more than 400 GW of of renewables per year until 2050 to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. Last year, only about 180 GW of fresh renewable power capacity came online. A week ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also pointed out that 2018 marked the first time the volume of new renewables had not risen year on year since 2001. It said last year’s additions were not enough to keep the world on track to achieve the objectives defined in the Paris climate change agreement.
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